JAKARTA. Center of Reform on Economics (Core) Indonesia predicts that Indonesia can only realize 90-92% of its state revenue target for this year.
"It won't reach the target because there is no driving momentum until the end of the year," said economist at Core, Yusuf Rendy as quoted by Kontan.co.id on Sunday (15/9).
Yusuf predicted that state revenue would be around Rp 1,960 trillion - Rp 1,991 trillion or around 90% -92% of the state revenue target set in the 2019 State Budget (APBN). The deficit could reach 2.1% of GDP.
It was also influenced by falling oil and coal prices, and the strengthening of the rupiah exchange rate to the level of Rp 14,000 per US dollar.
Even so, Yusuf saw an opportunity for oil prices to rose, due to the bombing of the Saudi Aramco factory, which is a large supplier of oil in Saudi Arabia.
After the bombing, oil production might have been a bit disrupted and with the same amount of demand, it could cause a rise in world oil prices. According to him, in the long run, this may lead to uncertainty in world oil prices. This is what needs to be considered by Indonesia, especially for oil tax and non-tax revenue.
"This condition will encourage capital inflow to developing countries, including Indonesia. It is indeed a blessing in disguise, so we must be careful," Yusuf added. (AM/AR)