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BI: Retail sales improves in November 2020

12 January 2021 11:10

JAKARTA - Monthly retail sales grew better in November, supported by most groups of goods. This is reflected in the November 2020 Real Sales Index (IPR) which grew -1.2% (mtm), improving from -5.3% (mtm) in October 2020. Improvements occurred in most groups of goods, with sales of Clothing, Motorized Vehicle Fuel, as well as Spare Parts and Accessories with positive growth. On an annual basis, retail sales performance for the November 2020 period contracted with an IPR growth of -16.3% (yoy), slightly deeper than -14.9% (yoy) in the previous month, mainly influenced by the Information and Communication Equipment and Equipment group. Other Households.

In December 2020, monthly retail sales are forecasted to improve. The IPR for December 2020 is projected to grow by 2.9% (mtm), driven by increased public demand during the Christmas and New Year's Day for National Religious Holidays (HBKN). All groups are predicted to experience positive growth, particularly in the Information and Communication Equipment and Other Household Supplies group. Annually, retail sales performance is predicted to continue in a contractionary phase in December 2020 with an IPR growth of -20.7% (yoy).

In terms of prices, inflationary pressure is predicted to increase in the next 3 months (February 2021), while in the next 6 months (May 2021) it is predicted to decrease. This indication of an increase in prices in February 2021 is reflected in the General Price Expectation Index (IEH) for the next 3 months of 150.4, higher than the previous month's 139.8. It is estimated that the price increase will be influenced by religious celebrations and distribution disruption due to unfavorable weather. Meanwhile, IEH for the next 6 months amounted to 161.7, lower than the previous month's 163.9, in line with the relatively well-maintained supply during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr moments supported by smooth distribution. (LM)

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