JAKARTA - In line with the annual growth of the Real Sales Index (IPR) in June 2021 by 2.5% (yoy), in July 2021 respondents predict that monthly retail sales performance will improve. Retail Sales Performance in June 2021 was supported by the growth of the Motor Vehicle Fuel group and the Clothing Sub-group.
Meanwhile, monthly IPR in June 2021 contracted 12.8% (mtm), lower than 3.2% (mtm) in May 2021. The results of the Retail Sales Survey[1] (SPE) indicated limited retail sales performance compared to achievements in the previous month. Respondents said that this was due to the decline in public demand in line with the return to normal public consumption after the National Religious Holiday (HBKN) Eid al-Fitr, especially in the Food, Beverage and Tobacco Group.
In July 2021, respondents predict that monthly retail sales performance will improve. This is reflected in the reduced monthly IPR contraction in July 2021 to -8.3% (mtm), improving from -12.8% (mtm) in June 2021. The improvement was supported by increased sales performance for the Food, Beverages and Tobacco Group.
Respondents stated that demand for the Food, Beverage and Tobacco group is predicted to remain quite good, supported by various strategies such as online sales/delivery, which are increasing in line with the mobility restriction policy. On an annual basis, retail sales in July 2021 contracted 6.2% (yoy), mainly in the Information and Communication Equipment Group, Cultural and Recreational Goods, and Clothing Subgroup.
In terms of prices, respondents predict that inflationary pressure will ease in September and increase in December. The General Price Expectation Index (IEH) in September was 112.7, down from the previous month, supported by sufficient supply due to smooth distribution of goods. Meanwhile, December's IEH was 129.3, higher than the achievement in the previous month of 119.9 driven by high demand and reduced availability of goods during Christmas HBKN and New Year's preparations. (LM)