JAKARTA. Several aspects had been deemed sufficient for Asian Development Bank (ADB) to reduce its national economic growth rate projection this year from 4.5% to 3.5%.
Last April, ADB had initially projected Indonesia’s economic growth rate to reach 4.5%. According to Senior Country Economist of ADB, Henry Ma, during the ASIAN Development Outlook 2021 in Jakarta yesterday (22/9), the economic recovery is still present, albeit less significant, at 3.5%.
ADB had considered some factors causing this prediction rate to deplete. Firstly, its economic growth realisation by the end of H1 2021 only reaches 7.07%, which was lower than the initial prediction. Thus, it would subsequently provide a lower economic growth rate in the next year.
The second factor is the higher mobility restriction in Q3 2021, putting pressure on economic indicators such as retail sales, vehicle sales, consumer confidence index, and PMI manufacture. Next, there are factors of the new COVID-19 variants emerging and the cases surging, even in developed countries like the United States. Lastly, there is financial pressure in the global economic condition as well as contraction in the services sector.
ADB also lowers its estimated national economic growth rate for the next year from 5% year-on-year (yoy) to 4.8% yoy. (AM/ZH)