JAKARTA - Retail sales performance is predicted to remain strong in August 2022. This is reflected in the August 2022 Real Sales Index (IPR) forecast of 202.8, or 5.4% (yoy) growth, mainly supported by increased sales in the Food, Beverage, and Food Group. and Tobacco.
On a monthly basis, retail sales are forecasted to grow 1.3% (mtm) after previously contracting for the third month in a row. This was mainly driven by increased sales of the Food, Beverage and Tobacco Group, as well as improvements to the Spare Parts and Accessories Group.
In the period of July 2022, the results of the Retail Sales Survey (SPE) indicated that retail sales performance grew higher, as reflected in the July 2022 Real Sales Index (IPR) which was recorded at 200.2, or grew 6.2% (yoy), increasing from growth the previous month at 4.1% (yoy). The increase was driven by higher sales in almost all categories of goods, including the Clothing Subgroup (59.4%, yoy) and the Motor Vehicle Fuel Group (67.2%, yoy). On a monthly basis, retail sales growth in July 2022 was recorded at -3.1% (mtm), improving from -11.8% (mtm) in the previous month, especially in the Automotive Fuel Group, Clothing Sub-group, and Cultural and Recreational Goods Group.
In terms of prices, respondents predict that inflationary pressure will decrease in October 2022 and increase in January 2023. General Price Expectation (IEH) for October 2022 was recorded at 135.3, lower than 137.5 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the January 2023 IEH was recorded at 144.7 or higher than 138.5 in the previous month. (LM)