JAKARTA – Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) expects a strong El Niño event to persist until early 2027.

The phenomenon is likely to worsen drought conditions while increasing the risk of forest and land fires across parts of Indonesia, particularly on the islands of Java, Sumatra and Kalimantan.

According to Antaranews, BMKG chief Teuku Faisal Fathani said the impact of El Niño could become even more severe if a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also develops during the second half of this year, potentially extending the dry season across many parts of the country.

"This climate outlook is consistent with BMKG's projection that El Niño will persist until early 2027, bringing drier-than-normal conditions throughout the dry season," Fathani said.

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BMKG recorded that, as of mid-July, around 54.5% of Indonesia's seasonal zones had entered the dry season.

Drought conditions are expected to peak between August and September, with hundreds of regencies and municipalities likely to experience a longer dry season than usual.

Fathani warned that the threat of extreme drought would also significantly increase the risk of forest and land fires across the country.

"The threat of extreme drought is directly linked to a higher risk of forest and land fires. BMKG has recorded more than 4,900 hotspots as of the end of July," he said.

As part of its mitigation efforts, BMKG has expanded its weather modification operations, or artificial rain programme, in provinces considered highly vulnerable to forest and land fires, including South Sumatra, Central Kalimantan and Riau.

BMKG is also coordinating with the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB), the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI), the National Police (Polri) and other relevant agencies to integrate cloud-seeding operations with ground-based firefighting efforts. (DH/ZH)

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