JAKARTA - Retail Sales Survey results indicate a continued decline in retail sales in March 2020. This is reflected in the March 2020 Real Sales Index (IPR) which fell -4.5% (yoy), deeper than -0.8% (yoy) in February 2020.
This decline was driven by sales contraction in almost all commodity groups monitored, except for the Food, Beverage and Tobacco group which remained solid. The deepest decline in retail sales occurred in the Other Goods group, specifically the Clothing sub-group.
Retail sales in April 2020 are predicted to contract more. This is reflected in the forecast for April 2020 IPR growth of -11.8% (yoy), due to the decline that occurred in all commodity groups surveyed. The steepest decline occurred in the Other Goods category, specifically the Clothing sub-group, which is predicted to fall by -67.3% (yoy), deeper than -60.5% (yoy) in March 2020.
The survey results indicate price pressures at the retail level will experience a decline in the next 3 and 6 months (June and September 2020). The decline in price pressures is reflected in the 3-and 6-month General Price Expectation Index (IEH) in the coming months (June and September 2020) of 160.7 and 153.0, lower than 173.0 in May 2020 and 153.7 in August 2020 is in line with the forecasted decline in demand. (LM)