JAKARTA - Retail sales continue to improve even though they are still in a contractionary phase. This is reflected in the Real Sales Index (IPR) from the July 2020 Retail Sales Survey with a growth of -12.3% (yoy), improving from -17.1% (yoy) in the previous month.
Sales improvement is predicted for almost all commodity groups surveyed, with sales in the Food, Beverage and Tobacco category experiencing the lowest contraction, with growth at -1.9% (yoy). This is in line with the increase in people's purchasing power and the implementation of New Habit Adaptation (AKB).
Retail sales are predicted to continue improving in August 2020, supported by nearly all categories of goods. IPR growth for August 2020 is forecasted at -10.1% (yoy), improving from the previous month. Sales of the Food, Beverage and Tobacco group are predicted to start recording positive growth in August 2020. Meanwhile, other groups of goods are also predicted to experience improvement with a downward contraction, except for the Other Household Goods group.
In terms of prices, inflationary pressure is predicted to increase in the next 3 and 6 months (October 2020 and January 2021). The indications of an increase in prices are reflected in the General Price Expectation Index (IEH) 3 and 6 months for the next 3 and 6 months of 133.7 and 157.7, respectively, higher than the previous period of 131.5 and 156.1, respectively. Respondents estimated that the price increase was influenced by disruption in the distribution of goods and services in line with the arrival of the rainy season. (LM)