JAKARTA - Retail sales continue to improve, supported by most groups of goods. This is reflected in the August 2020 Real Sales Index (IPR) which grew -9.2% (yoy), improving from -12.3% (yoy) in July 2020. Improvement occurred in most groups of goods, with sales of the Food Group, Drinks and Tobacco that showed positive growth, in line with the implementation of New Habit Adaptation (IMR) which encourages community activities.
It is indicated that the improvement in retail sales performance will continue in September 2020, especially supported by the Food, Beverage and Tobacco Group, which continues to grow positively. IPR growth for September 2020 is forecasted at -7.3% (yoy), improving from -9.2% (yoy) in August 2020. The Food, Beverage and Tobacco Group is predicted to maintain positive growth and is higher than the previous month. Other groups of goods whose sales grew better were the Motor Vehicle Fuels and Other Goods Group, particularly the Clothing Sub-Group and the Spare Parts and Accessories Group.
In terms of prices, inflationary pressure is predicted to ease in the next 3 months (November 2020), while in the next 6 months (February 2021) it will increase. The indication of a price reduction in November 2020 can be seen from the General Price Expectation Index (IEH) for the next 3 months of 132.5, lower than the previous month's IEH of 133.7.
Meanwhile, IEH for the next 6 months amounted to 166.9, higher than the IEH of the previous month of 157.7. Respondents estimated that the decline in prices in November 2020 will be driven by smoother distribution of goods, while the increase in prices in the next 6 months will be driven by national religious holidays. (LM)