JAKARTA - Retail sales in September 2020 continued the upward trend that occurred since June 2020. Growth in the Real Sales Index (IPR) for September 2020 was recorded at -8.7% (yoy), improving compared to IPR growth in August of -9.2% (yoy).
Improvement in retail sales occurred in most of the monitored commodity groups such as the Food, Beverage and Tobacco Group which recorded positive growth in the last two months, as well as improvements in the Clothing and Motor Vehicle Fuel groups.
Improvement in retail sales is predicted to be slightly restrained in October 2020, with growth at -10.0% (yoy). A number of commodities, such as the Food, Beverage and Tobacco Group and the Cultural and Recreational Goods Group, are predicted to experience a decline in sales. Meanwhile, sales performance is predicted for several commodities, including the Household Appliances and Motor Vehicle Fuels Group. On a monthly basis, retail sales are projected to grow 0.1% (mtm) in October 2020, in line with the celebration of national religious holidays (HBKN) and long holidays at the end of the month.
In terms of prices, inflationary pressure is predicted to increase in the next 3 months (December 2020), while in the next 6 months (March 2021) it will decrease. This indication of an increase in prices in December 2020 is reflected in the General Price Expectation Index (IEH) for the next 3 months of 142.5, higher than the previous month's IEH of 132.5. This was driven by an increase in demand during HBKN and year-end holidays. Meanwhile, IEH for the next 6 months is 160.0, lower than the 166.9 in the previous month, in line with the smooth distribution of goods and supplies. (LM)