SEOUL – South Korea’s exports in April are projected to decline for the first time in three months, falling by up to 2%, due to US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies on automotive and steel products.

The forecast is based on a Reuters poll of 22 South Korean economists, conducted between 23–28 April.

As the first major economy to release monthly trade data, South Korea serves as an early indicator of global trade conditions. Previously, in March, South Korean exports rose by 3.0%.

Trump imposed a 25% import tariff on cars from 3 April, following the same tariff on steel from 4 March.

Additionally, a general 10% tariff came into effect on 5 April. Although a 90-day grace period was granted for "reciprocal" tariffs on major economies, including South Korea, certain industries have already started feeling the impact.

“The effects of the tariffs are now becoming visible,” said Stephen Lee, an economist at Meritz Securities.

Meanwhile, Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities, noted that negative pressure from tariffs will persist, particularly with the potential addition of further duties on car parts and semiconductors, alongside ongoing US-China tensions.

Despite the challenges, semiconductors—South Korea’s key export commodity—have remained resilient, serving as the primary support for overall exports.

Data from the first 20 days of April revealed that South Korea’s exports fell by 5.2%, with car and steel product exports dropping by 6.5% and 8.7%, respectively. Conversely, semiconductor exports rose by 10.7%. Meanwhile, exports to the US plunged by 14.3%, while those to China fell by 3.4%.

South Korea’s automotive sector is growing pessimistic about business prospects, whereas chip manufacturers remain optimistic due to strong global demand, according to the Bank of Korea.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s imports are expected to decline by 7.0% in April, marking the sharpest drop since June 2024. The trade surplus is predicted to shrink to $4.35 billion, down from $4.92 billion in the previous month.

Official April trade data will be released on Thursday, 1 May at 9:00 AM local time. (EF/KR/LM)