JAKARTA – Several Wall Street banks have slashed their year-end profit forecasts for the stock market, now projecting returns to be lower than initially expected.

At least 10 banks, including JPMorgan and Bank of America, have revised down their earnings estimates for the benchmark S&P 500 index. The downgrades come in the wake of a 10% base tariff imposed on goods imported into the United States, along with significantly higher reciprocal tariffs targeting dozens of US trading partners.

Citigroup analyst Scott Chronert said that continued uncertainty in US trade policy could drag down economic growth, potentially tipping the country into recession in a worst-case scenario.

“The goldilocks sentiment that defined the start of the year has given way to total uncertainty,” Chronert told the Financial Times over the weekend.

The S&P 500 has fallen more than 7% since US President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on (2/4), and is down 14% from its peak on (19/2).

Based on the latest estimates from several US banks, the S&P 500 is now forecast to grow just 2% in 2025 — a sharp contrast to the benchmark index’s gains of over 20% in both 2023 and 2024.

Meanwhile, other voices on Wall Street, such as BCA Research, warn that the S&P 500 could drop as much as 15% from current levels by the end of 2025.

“There are many schools of thought on Wall Street,” said Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist and Director at BCA Research. (KR/ZH)