JAKARTA – Global crude oil prices strengthened again at the start of this week amid escalating geopolitical tensions and a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) to raise output, though not as much as markets had feared.

Brent futures for August delivery rose by as much as 2.1% to USD 64.09 per barrel, after declining 2.2% over the previous week. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded around USD 62 per barrel.

The price increase follows a series of global developments that have unsettled markets, ranging from Ukraine’s attacks on air bases in Russia to renewed nuclear tensions after Iran rejected reports on enriched uranium stockpile growth.

On another front, US President Donald Trump announced plans to raise tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, adding further uncertainty to the global trade war.

At a meeting on Saturday, OPEC+ agreed to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in July 2025.

The decision aligns with increases in May and June but falls short of earlier expectations that the group would ramp up supply by a far larger margin.

According to OPEC+ officials, the moderate hike reflects Saudi Arabia’s desire to pressure member states that have consistently exceeded their production quotas, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq.

Some countries, including Russia, Oman, and Algeria, had proposed delaying the increase out of concern for price volatility.

“Brent is likely to remain stable in the USD 60–USD 65 range during the summer, at least until there is clarity on how quickly OPEC production actually ramps up,” said Robert Rennie, Head of Commodity and Carbon Research at Westpac Banking Corp in Sydney, as quoted by CNBC TV18 on Monday (2/6).

He also noted that the pace of production increases could slow in the coming months.

Previously, oil markets had been under pressure from trade conflicts and a shift in OPEC+ strategy, moving away from propping up prices through output cuts.

Global oil prices remain nearly 15% lower than at the start of the year, indicating an incomplete recovery.

With the next OPEC+ meeting scheduled for 6 July, market participants are now awaiting decisions on August output levels and their implications for global market stability. (EF/ZH)