JAKARTA – At least 40 countries will hold presidential/general election throughout 2024. Fiscal policy of each candidate, such as tax exemption during Donald Trump’s term in the US, may determine the global market reaction.

Karen Ward, Chief Market Strategist for EMEA (Europe, The Middle East & Africa) of JP Morgan Asset Management, mentioned that this year’s elections will cover 40% of global population and GDP. “Presidential election will take place in four countries with the biggest population in the world,” she said, as quoted from Market Insights EMEA, today (5/1).

These upcoming presidential elections may generate further implication towards the global market. The chosen candidate in Taiwan’s General Election in January 2024 will be the first in line to be observed by investors.

Following Taiwan, India will hold its own election in April 2024, in which Narendra Modi, serving as current Prime Minister of India, attempts to extend his term for the third time.

European Parliament General Election will also take place mid-2024, followed by the US Presidential Election in November 2024 and the UK Presidential Election on December 17, 2024.

According to Ward, some political campaigns initiated by candidates in upcoming elections will affect the market’s reaction. For example, fiscal policy of Donald Trump, the 45th US President, in 2017, has triggered shifts in stock price and increased income. However, in 2024, fiscal limitations in the US and the UK will hinder political parties from pushing forward the tax cut policy, or increasing government’s expenditures.

With soaring costs and deficits of over 6% and 5% of the US and the UK’s GDP, respectively, the gap of economic issues brought upon by right-wing and left-wing political parties is projected to shrink. (LK/ZH)